cushman & wakefield study shows how demographic shifts will impact the global workplace by 2030
jan 8, 2020
chinese cities expected to be among the most productive next decade, but continuous improvement is needed to challenge higher-ranking cities for talent
shanghai, january 8, 2020 – the retirement of baby boomers and the debut of generation z workers, along with other demographic shifts, will have major implications for real estate occupiers, investors and policy-makers around the world according to a new global research report from cushman & wakefield (nyse: cwk). all stakeholders need to understand the impacts of these trends and how to position themselves to maximize opportunities.
entitled “demographic shifts: the world in 2030,” the report analyses the seismic shifts in workforces worldwide as 693 million baby boomers reach retirement age and 1.3 billion members of gen z enter the labour force over the next 10 years. the report looks at the different approaches to work and lifestyle taken by baby boomers, millennials and gen z around the world, and the impact on the world’s cities over the next decade as one generation exits the workforce and another enters.
cushman & wakefield compared labour force growth and gdp growth of more than 137 cities worldwide. cities with high growth in both categories have the best prospects for strong real estate demand, while slow growth in both categories indicates a lagging market. cities with faster growth in gdp than in the working-age population are “high productivity” markets that may appeal to investors as they rise up the value proposition. those with greater growth in labour than gdp are considered “low productivity” markets need to harness that attraction of talent to boost output. (see table)
figure 1: real gdp growth vs. working-age population growth, global analysis, 2020-2030
“we were surprised that generational behaviors superseded cultural ones. gen y and gen z workers, to some extent, have similar workplace preferences no matter where in the world they live, but the two generations also differ in many ways,” said kevin thorpe, chief economist and head of global research at cushman & wakefield. “for example, workplace strategy will need to account for an ever-increasing array of requirements to meet the needs of tomorrow’s professionals. understanding these generations’ values, how and where they want to work, and their inter-personal strengths and weaknesses will lay the foundations of securing the best talent available.”
changing demographics are important to clients as they pursue more dynamic workplace strategies to manage a multi-generational workforce. on the investor side, clients need to understand the factors that will drive the demand of various property types, such as the number of new workers and/or recent retirees in the market.
“these demographic trends will drive the pace of growth in cities around the world,” said dr. dominic brown, head of insight & analysis, asia pacific at cushman & wakefield. “cities will need to establish themselves as ‘places’ to attract the highest quality workers and in turn create the greatest real estate opportunities for occupiers and investors alike.”
the high-productivity quadrant is exclusively the domain of chinese cities, highlighting the rapid change that the country is going through. over the past decade, we have seen chinese manufacturing move up the value chain, while retaining a market share of less complex exports. as a result, chinese cities offer a range of opportunities for corporate occupiers. simultaneously, policy developments such as creating special economic zones have formed global economic powerhouses. this is helping to offset the slowdown in population growth, with many chinese cities forecast to experience negative growth in their working populations over the next decade. at a national level, china’s workforce aged 20-64 is forecast to decline by 3%, equating to the loss of nearly 30 million workers. productivity gains are therefore imperative.
the impressive growth witnessed in shanghai, shenzhen and guangzhou are a testament to this. continuous improvements, however, will be required in talent attraction and market transparency to truly challenge higher-ranking cities. while shanghai has successfully managed to position itself in the top 10 cities globally for foreign investment—it is the only chinese city in the top 25—the u.s. has four cities in the top 15. this could easily change if chinese cities continue to modernize and
mature at their current pace.
the study concluded that the world’s top-performing cities are located in south east asia and india, which bodes well for the economic growth and strength of real estate markets in these areas. most cities in europe and north america ranked as low productivity or lagging markets for economic and real estate growth and their trajectories need to be assessed accordingly.
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about cushman & wakefield
cushman & wakefield (nyse: cwk) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. cushman & wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with 51,000 employees in approximately 400 offices and 70 countries. across greater china, there are 22 offices servicing the local market. the company won four of the top awards in the euromoney survey 2017 and 2018 in the categories of overall, agency letting/sales, valuation and research in china. in 2018, the firm had revenue of $8.2 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. to learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @cushwake on twitter.
for further information, please contact:
mandy qian
director, marketing & communications, greater china
tel: 86 10 8519 8040
mandy.qian@cushwake.com
