post covid-19 real estate changes in china: ones to watch in 2020
mar 6, 2020
shanghai, march 6, 2020 ——the covid-19 outbreak has been an unprecedented event in china. its effect has been felt across geographies, the society, the economy and the property market in the country. cushman & wakefield recently released the report - post covid-19 – recovery, shaun brodie, head of occupier research, greater china, head of research, east china, said: “the covid-19 outbreak is expected to impact china’s real estate market on many levels and in our report, we highlight over a dozen ‘one-to-watch’ points which real estate investors, developers and occupiers should be aware of in 2020 and beyond.”
for office properties: remote working will alter the office workplace, companies in industry sectors, such as tmt, healthcare, finance and retail (retailers which have a strong online presence) will be office occupiers which landlords will target, and wellness and wellbeing will be prioritised.
1. remote working in china
jonathan wei, managing director, head of occupier services, china, said :”after the experience of remote working during the outbreak period, we expect landlords and occupiers in china to both reconsider this way of working and to factor in its impact on office floor plans and office space workplace strategy. office landlords might consider incorporating more co-working spaces and communal areas into their buildings, while office occupiers might consider incorporating more unassigned hot desks, team collaboration spaces and meeting rooms into the workspace.”. hardware aside, to successfully execute a remote working work style, company employees in china will have to bear in mind many factors, including the five points: time management; task assignment management; task progress reporting (timely and effective feedback); team collaboration and regular meetings.
2. occupiers to target in china
looking to the near future, given the covid-19 outbreak, the general policy direction, and the current and expected macro-economic dynamics, we believe there are four business sectors which prime office landlords in china should be aware of as likely to positively impact office demand in the region over the coming year and they are: tmt; healthcare; finance and retail (retailers which have a strong online presence).
3. wellness and wellbeing in china
office landlords in china that provide timely and effective health and safety protection measures for the tenants and users of their buildings will be in a better position to gain the trust of their existing and potential occupiers. by ensuring their building is properly equipped with items, such as thermal imaging, air conditioning filtration and sterilisation systems, wellness and wellbeing levels will be elevated, occupiers will be satisfied, tenant retention and attraction rates will be improved, and the business viability of the building will be strengthened.
for retail properties: a fully functioning and optimised omnichannel presence will be a must-have item, retail digitisation/data intelligence will be developed further, and retail marketing models will be transformed.
4. online shopping in china
duke zhen, managing director, retail services, china, said: “in the short term, the drop in footfall traffic will dent the retail sales numbers in china, however, going forward in the mid- to long term, we do expect retail sales volume growth rates to return to pre-outbreak levels. what’s more, we will see an acceleration and a deeper integration of offline/online omnichannel retail services in china, given
the impact of the outbreak and the recognised importance of these platforms by retailers for driving retail product and service sales.”
china offline/online retail sales volume trend (2008-2019)
source: national bureau of statistics, cushman & wakefield research
5. retail digitisation/data intelligence in china
digitisation and data intelligence have become important tools in china’s retail sector, but the covid-19 outbreak has proved to a number of retailers that these tools can be further optimised. ahead, through best-practice use of digitisation and data intelligence, we expect many retailers to place a greater emphasis on customer relationship management; in-depth data mining; product personalisation and intelligent supply chain management. so as to improve the customer shopping experience and, ultimately, retail sales performance.
6. retail marketing models to change in china
post covid-19, we expect more retailers and shopping centres in china to change their existing marketing model and adapt it to utilise live online broadcasts channels to not only market their products and services but to also improve the overall shopping experience for their customers.
for industrial properties: industry 4.0 will be further adopted and integrated, and demand for premium logistics space will be boosted.
7. industry 4.0 in china
tony su, managing director, head of industrial & logistics property services, china, said: “in the medium and long term, to better handle outbreaks, we expect more and more manufacturers operating in china to adopt an industry 4.0 process. this new manufacturing trend will ease production and distribution, especially for flexible manufacturing systems, where smart production lines can support companies in switching between different products. a good example of this is the large number of automobile manufacturing companies that have recently changed to the production of masks. a quick production turnaround to capitalize on new market dynamics will become a major comparative advantage in the future. we will also pay close attention to any new developments in the implementation of these trends throughout the commercial real estate industry.”
8. logistics space demand in china
the covid-19 outbreak will have exposed more people in china to the idea of online shopping and as a result, ecommerce will play a larger role in the country’s economy going forward. greater ecommerce business activity will create further demand for premium warehouse space in china. in turn, we expect real estate investors and developers to focus not only on core cities and regions but also to continually advance their presence in provincial capitals and transportation hub cities around the country.
for data centre properties: given the greater use of the internet during and after the covid-19 outbreak, demand for data and information processing and storage will rise. this will also mean demand for rack space in data centres will increase;
9. demand for rack space in china
at present, data centres in china are continuing to be developed. ahead, and spurred on by the impact of the covid-19 outbreak on the internet activity rate in china, as well as the accelerated development of cloud computing, big data, the internet of things and artificial intelligence in the country in the near future, there will be a greater need for data and information processing racks in data centres. as racks increase and as the number of data centres grow in the country, according to idc china, by the end of 2020, the data centre market in china is expected to reach a value in the order of rmb 200 billion plus.
for hotel properties: service quality and cleanliness will be of the utmost importance after the covid-19 outbreak as these two factors will be key for hotels in gaining the trust of guests, and in turn, a rise in a hotel’s occupancy rate;
10. hotel service quality and cleanliness in china
the outbreak has presented complex and difficult challenges for the hotel industry in china. as tourists begin to start travelling again and as the hotel industry begins to recover, individual hotels up and down the country will have to step up their service quality and cleanliness in order to win the trust of guests, and in turn, boost their occupancy rates.
for residential properties: many residential investors and developers will have to consider incorporating a home office area into their residential property development unit plans as well as intelligent parcel drop boxes to serve the residential community as a whole;
11. home office/study areas in residential properties in china
it is still unclear whether working from home will become a popular choice for many office employees in china. one thing is clear, however, there will be many potential buyers of residential properties in the near future in the country, who having lived through the experience of working from home during the covid-19 outbreak, might consider purchasing a residential property which has a dedicated home office/study area over one that does not. along with this expected demand, many residential investors and developers may well have to consider designing in a separate home office/study area into their plans for their residential property unit developments in china in the future.
12. intelligent parcel drop boxes in residential properties in china
once the covid-19 outbreak is over, the usefulness of intelligent parcel drop boxes for large scale residential communities across china will not be lost on residential investors, developers, residential property management companies and residents alike. we expect more of these types of smart delivery systems to be installed in residential communities in the future.
for property investment: gateway first tier cities will continue to remain important destinations for property investment in china.
13. first tier cities in china to remain important
we expect the downside risk from the covid-19 outbreak to fade in the mid- to longer term. in the short-term, given some owners might be cash-strapped, there may well be some properties put on the block at bargain discounts, which will appeal to many real estate investors. what’s more, foreign ownership limits on fund management firms will be lifted nationwide starting 1 april this year, as the country speeds up its financial opening-up. this will be a boon for real estate investment activity in china going forward.
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cushman & wakefield (nyse: cwk) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. cushman & wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 53,000 employees in 400 offices and 60 countries. across greater china, there are 22 offices servicing the local market. the company won four of the top awards in the euromoney survey 2017 and 2018 in the categories of overall, agency letting/sales, valuation and research in china. in 2019, the firm had revenue of $8.8 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. to learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @cushwake on twitter.
for further information, please contact:
mandy qian
director, marketing & communications, greater china
tel: 86 10 8519 8040
mandy.qian@cushwake.com